Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Pavel Kotov

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Marco Trungelliti, an Argentine professional ranked outside the top 200, faces Pavel Kotov, a Russian player with similar ranking status, in a Lyon qualifying or challenger-level fixture originally scheduled for 8 June 2026. The 100% implied probability reflects either extremely thin liquidity, a technical settlement assumption favouring the scheduled match proceeding, or both. Given the low profile of both competitors and the early morning ET slot (4:00 AM), order-book depth likely remains shallow—a common pattern for lower-tier ATP events where deposit friction and withdrawal delays can suppress participation.

Historical ATP qualifying and challenger matches at this tier show cancellation rates between 3–7%, typically due to injury withdrawals announced 24–48 hours before play. Kotov's recent form and injury status remain the primary variables; Trungelliti has competed consistently on the secondary circuit but lacks recent high-profile wins. The settlement window extends to 15 June, allowing a seven-day grace period for rescheduling. Traders depositing via SEPA or Klarna should anticipate settlement confirmation only after official ATP records confirm the result, which can lag match completion by 12–24 hours.

Watch for withdrawal announcements from either player's official social channels or ATP Tour updates between 6–8 June. Kotov's participation in other scheduled events that week may signal fitness. Liquidity often spikes only hours before match time, meaning traders relying on slower on-ramps (SEPA transfers, Klarna settlement) risk missing tighter odds. USDC deposits settle instantly, offering an edge for late-window positioning on lower-tier tennis fixtures.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.