Market statistics
- Total volume
- $240K
- 24h volume
- $239K
- Liquidity
- $612K
- Open interest
- $123K
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Available prediction outcomes (10)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
Taro Daniel and Damir Dzumhur are scheduled to meet in the Prostejov tournament on 4 June 2026. The 83% implied probability favours Daniel, reflecting his recent form and head-to-head record against Dzumhur. Both players compete primarily on the ATP Challenger circuit, where surface and tournament tier significantly influence match outcomes. Prostejov is a clay-court event, a surface where Daniel has historically performed more consistently than Dzumhur over the past two seasons.
Daniel's ranking trajectory and Challenger-level consistency provide the foundation for the current odds. Dzumhur has experienced periods of injury and ranking volatility, which typically correlates with lower market confidence in his ability to upset higher-seeded or better-form opponents. Historical Challenger matchups between players of similar ranking show that the favourite wins approximately 70–75% of the time when implied probability sits near 80%, suggesting this market may be slightly overweighting Daniel's chances relative to baseline Challenger statistics.
Traders should monitor official ATP Challenger announcements regarding draw confirmation and any late withdrawals, as Challenger fields often see last-minute changes. Court surface conditions and weather forecasts for early June in the Czech Republic may also shift expectations, particularly if clay courts are damp or slow. Withdrawal liquidity and deposit rails—SEPA transfers, USDC settlement, and Klarna on-ramps—will determine book depth as the match approaches. Delayed confirmation of the draw or scheduling changes beyond 7 June would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause, creating tail-risk pricing adjustments in the final trading window.
Methodology
This page compares Prostejov: Taro Daniel vs Damir Dzumhur with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. PolyGram additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like PolyGram add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on PolyGram?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and PolyGram converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- PolyGram charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by PolyGram — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). PolyGram retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
Trade Prostejov: Taro Daniel vs Damir Dzumhur on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →