Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Mary Stoiana and Celine Naef are scheduled to meet in the opening rounds of the Ilkley tournament on 13 June 2026. The match carries a settlement window extending to 20 June, allowing seven days for completion before the market resolves to a split outcome. Current pricing reflects zero implied probability for Stoiana, suggesting either strong market conviction around Naef's form or insufficient liquidity depth to establish a two-sided book.

Historical precedent from lower-ranked WTA matchups shows that opening-round encounters at grass-court events often reflect recent tournament performance and surface-specific preparation rather than career head-to-head records. Stoiana and Naef occupy similar ranking bands, making the 0% pricing unusual without recent injury announcements or withdrawal news. Markets on comparable grass-court qualifiers typically maintain 15–40% probability ranges for either player when both are fit and confirmed. The absence of any YES-side liquidity suggests traders may be waiting for confirmation of final draw placement or recent form updates before committing deposit capital.

Traders should monitor the official Ilkley draw release and any WTA injury bulletins through early June. Recent SEPA and USDC deposit flows into prediction markets have accelerated ahead of grass-court season, with withdrawal friction via Klarna and bank transfers influencing position sizing. If either player withdraws or the draw shifts, the settlement window's seven-day buffer provides time for rescheduling. Confirmation of both players' participation and recent match results will likely trigger initial liquidity migration into this market.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.