Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
10% | 90% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
10% | 90% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Atalanta BC (-2.5) | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 95% YES | 6% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 80% YES | 21% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 60% YES | 41% NO |
| O/U 5.5 | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| ACF Fiorentina (-1.5) | 13% YES | 87% NO |
Market context
Fiorentina host Atalanta in Serie A on 24 May, and the “more markets” contract is pricing at just 9% for a Yes result. That is low, but it fits the way niche football markets usually trade when the book is thin and most activity sits in the main match odds rather than in auxiliary contracts. In comparable Serie A side-markets, liquidity tends to build only when funding is easy: instant card deposits and Klarna can bring in smaller retail orders quickly, while SEPA and USDC rails often matter more for larger balances and repeat traders. Where on-ramp friction is higher, these secondary markets can stay under-owned even when the underlying match is well covered elsewhere.
The main things to watch are any late team-news updates, market listings tied to the same fixture, and whether settlement rules depend on the match going ahead on schedule. Recent previews have framed the game as tight rather than decisive, with Atalanta slightly stronger on underlying numbers and the draw still live, which keeps interest focused on the core result rather than extra contracts. If the exchange shows a burst of deposits close to kick-off, especially through faster payment methods, that can widen spreads and lift activity in these smaller “more markets” positions. Conversely, if funding slows or withdrawal rails are unattractive for casual traders, the 9% can persist simply because the order book never fills out.
Methodology
We track ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC - More Markets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
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