Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano

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Market context

Bologna travel to the San Siro on 24 May 2026 to face Internazionale in a Serie A fixture that arrives late in the season. The 26% implied probability on a Bologna victory reflects the substantial home advantage and historical performance gap between the clubs. Inter have finished in the top two for five consecutive seasons, whilst Bologna have oscillated between mid-table finishes and European qualification spots, making the away win a genuine underdog proposition.

Historical matchups underscore why the market has priced Bologna's chances conservatively. In their last ten meetings across all competitions, Inter have won seven, with Bologna securing just one victory. When Bologna do win away at top-six sides, it typically occurs when Inter are already mathematically secure in their objectives or fielding rotated squads. The late-May timing matters here: if Inter have already secured the Scudetto or Champions League qualification, team selection could shift the baseline expectation, though this remains speculative without confirmation of their final-day scenario.

Traders monitoring this market should track Inter's fixture congestion in the weeks prior, particularly any European commitments that might necessitate squad rotation. Bologna's recent form—their points tally and goal differential in April and early May—will signal whether they arrive as a genuine threat or a struggling side hoping for a favourable circumstance. Deposit friction via Klarna or SEPA transfers has historically reduced volatility in late-season Serie A markets, as casual depositors often wait until settlement windows close. Book depth on this 26% YES position will likely tighten as match day approaches, particularly if either club's European fate remains unresolved.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.