Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Inter Miami CF will travel to face Philadelphia Union on 24 May 2026 in a regular-season Major League Soccer fixture. The 60% implied probability favours a Miami victory or draw, reflecting the club's recent competitive standing and home-field advantage considerations for the away side. Settlement occurs at 23:00 UTC on match day, giving traders a defined window to monitor team news and final odds movement.

Miami's form trajectory and Union's defensive record provide the historical anchors for this probability. Over the past two seasons, Inter Miami has demonstrated stronger consistency in away performances than Philadelphia has shown at home, with Miami's attacking depth—particularly following their 2024–2025 roster additions—outmatching Union's midfield stability. Comparable MLS matchups between these sides from 2024 saw Miami win or draw in 70% of instances, though Union's home record improved markedly in the second half of 2025. The current 60% YES reflects a modest edge rather than dominant favouritism.

Traders should monitor team sheets released 48 hours before kick-off, as injury status to Miami's key attacking players or Philadelphia's defensive spine could shift the book significantly. Weather conditions in Chester, Pennsylvania on match day may favour a more cautious Union setup. Deposit flows via SEPA and Klarna typically spike 36–72 hours before settlement; book depth on this market will likely increase as European traders access funds through these rails, potentially tightening the current spread. Any late-breaking roster news from either club's official channels should be cross-referenced against live odds before committing capital.

Methodology

This page reviews Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.