San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The San Francisco Giants host the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight at Oracle Park, with the market currently pricing the Giants at 65% to win. Recent form points both ways: Arizona opened the series with a 12–2 win on Monday, but San Francisco responded in the next game with a 5–3 victory, keeping the matchup finely balanced despite the market leaning towards the home side. Over a longer sample, the Giants have also been marginally stronger in the head-to-head, winning 11 of the last 20 meetings, which helps explain why the book is not treating this as a close-to-even contest.

Pitching and scheduling are the main live catalysts. MLB’s preview notes Justin Verlander has posted a 0.69 ERA in two starts this month, while Brandon Pfaadt is 0-4 with a 5.11 ERA in five starts against the Giants, a split that supports San Francisco’s shorter price if the expected starters hold. Line-up news and any late change to the rotation matter more than usual in a series that has already produced a blow-out and a one-run finish. For market depth, the practical issue is whether traders can get funds in quickly enough: deposits that clear instantly, such as card, Klarna or USDC rails, tend to support faster participation, while SEPA withdrawals are usually slower and can affect how much capital stays on platform for same-day baseball markets.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.