Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Pirates and Cardinals meet in a May 21 day game in St. Louis, with the market leaning towards a Cardinals win at a 28% implied chance for Pittsburgh. That price is best read as a visitor underdog line rather than a statement of likely run differential: the same matchup has already swung sharply this week, with Pittsburgh winning 7-0 on Wednesday after St. Louis took the opener 10-5 on 30 April. Recent head-to-head results have favoured the Cardinals, who are 4-1 in their last five against the Pirates and have outscored them over that span, which helps explain why Pittsburgh’s side is still relatively thin even after a shutout win.

For traders, the main near-term catalyst is whether the game proceeds on schedule at Busch Stadium and whether either club posts a late lineup or pitching change before first pitch. Official team announcements matter more than the broader standings, because a starting pitcher swap or a rest day can move a low-liquidity market quickly. On the funding side, depth often tracks how easily users can top up balances: fast deposits via cards, Klarna, SEPA or USDC tend to produce tighter books than slower withdrawal rails, so any spike in activity around line-up news may show up first in the cheapest on-ramp rather than in the headline price. The primary risk is the usual baseball one: weather or postponement, which would keep the market open until completion unless the fixture is cancelled outright.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.