New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Yankees and Guardians meet on 10 June at 1:10 PM ET in what amounts to a mid-season divisional fixture with playoff implications already in play. The current 100% crowd probability reflects either extreme confidence in one side or, more likely, thin liquidity in early market formation. Settlement occurs seven days after the scheduled start, allowing for postponements or rescheduling without forcing early closure. The resolution hinges on official MLB statistics; ties or full cancellations without makeup games trigger a 50-50 split.

Historical matchups between these franchises show the Yankees hold a structural advantage in head-to-head records, though Cleveland's 2023 World Series run demonstrated the Guardians' capacity to compete in high-stakes moments. Recent seasons have seen both teams alternate division dominance, making June fixtures meaningful for playoff seeding rather than season-defining. The crowd's unanimous positioning suggests either asymmetric information about roster availability or a liquidity event that hasn't yet attracted contrarian deposits.

Traders monitoring this market should track injury reports released in the 48 hours before first pitch—particularly starting pitcher health and bullpen depth, which shift odds materially. Weather forecasts for Cleveland matter; June rain can favour certain pitching profiles. Deposit flows via SEPA or Klarna typically accelerate once major sportsbooks publish opening lines, creating arbitrage opportunities for early movers. The settlement window's seven-day buffer means traders can exit positions immediately post-game without waiting for official confirmation, though withdrawal rails (USDC on-chain or traditional bank transfers) may introduce 1–2 day settlement delays depending on chosen payment method.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.