Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Chicago Cubs face the Pittsburgh Pirates on 25 May at 1:35 PM ET in a regular-season National League Central matchup. The 54% crowd-implied probability favours the Cubs, reflecting their historical edge in this division rivalry and recent roster composition. Settlement occurs on 1 June at 17:35 UTC, allowing roughly a week for final official statistics to be confirmed by MLB's governing authority.

Historical records show the Cubs have won approximately 55–60% of matchups against Pittsburgh over the past five seasons, though the Pirates have demonstrated volatility in single-game outcomes. The current probability aligns with pre-game expectations for a Cubs side that typically carries stronger offensive depth, though Pittsburgh's pitching rotation can produce unexpected results. Weather conditions at game time—temperature, wind direction at the venue—have historically shifted moneyline odds by 2–3 percentage points in late May fixtures.

Traders should monitor roster updates through 24 May, particularly injury reports affecting starting pitchers or key position players. Recent Cubs and Pirates lineups have been subject to mid-week adjustments; MLB injury announcements typically arrive by 10 AM ET on game day. Deposit flows into prediction markets often spike 12–18 hours before first pitch, particularly from users accessing SEPA transfers or Klarna payment rails. Book depth tends to stabilise once both teams confirm their starting nine, which reduces settlement uncertainty and can shift implied probabilities by 1–2 points as liquidity providers adjust their positions.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.