Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
53% | 47% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
53% | 47% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Dplus KIA (+2.5) | 15% YES | 85% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Market context
Dplus KIA will face T1 in the upper bracket final of the League of Legends Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs on 25 May 2026, with the winner advancing directly to the grand final. The best-of-five match is scheduled for 3:00 AM ET, reflecting Korea Standard Time broadcast windows. Current market pricing at 56% for Dplus KIA implies marginal favouritism, despite T1's historical dominance in Korean regional competition and their larger global fanbase. The settlement window closes at 13:00 UTC on match day, allowing roughly ten hours for the fixture to conclude before final odds lock.
T1 have won three of the past four LCK regional championships and remain the most decorated franchise in League esports, though Dplus KIA claimed the 2023 LCK title and have consistently fielded competitive rosters. Head-to-head records in 2024–2025 regular seasons show competitive matchups, with neither team establishing decisive superiority. Recent roster changes and mid-season form shifts carry weight; any announced roster swaps, player injuries, or coaching changes in the weeks preceding the match will move liquidity significantly. Traders should monitor official LCK announcements and team social media for lineup confirmations, as late substitutions have historically shifted implied probabilities by 5–8 percentage points in comparable fixtures.
Deposit friction and withdrawal rails affect book depth materially. SEPA transfers and Klarna on-ramps typically see higher volume during Asian esports events due to European trader participation, whilst USDC settlement attracts institutional flow. Match delays beyond seven days trigger 50-50 resolution; extended postponements often drain liquidity as traders withdraw capital via faster rails. Monitor payment processing times if you plan to exit positions immediately post-match.
Methodology
We track LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
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