New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Yankees travel to Cleveland on 9 June for a regular-season matchup against the Guardians, with first pitch at 6:40 PM ET. The current 53% implied probability for a Yankees victory reflects modest favouritism, consistent with their historical edge in head-to-head records and roster depth, though the Guardians have emerged as a competitive AL Central force in recent seasons. Book depth on this fixture typically correlates with deposit inflows during the week preceding the game; traders funding accounts via SEPA or Klarna tend to increase positions on higher-profile matchups, which can tighten spreads and reduce the friction between entry and exit pricing.

Historical context shows Yankees-Guardians contests have split fairly evenly since Cleveland's 2022 rebuild accelerated. The Yankees' 2024 regular season record against AL Central opponents sits at approximately .520, whilst the Guardians have posted comparable marks in interconference play. The 53% probability sits near the midpoint of typical pre-game ranges for this pairing, suggesting the market has already priced in standard factors: roster availability, recent form, and ballpark conditions at Cleveland's Progressive Field.

Traders should monitor injury reports through 8 June, particularly regarding starting pitchers and key position players. Weather forecasts for Cleveland on game day—wind direction and temperature affect fly-ball outcomes significantly—will likely shift the probability in the final 24 hours. Settlement occurs on 16 June at 22:40 UTC, allowing sufficient time for official MLB statistics to be confirmed; withdrawal via USDC or traditional rails remains available throughout the settlement window.

Methodology

This page reviews New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Deposit UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.