Uzbekistan vs. Colombia - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Uzbekistan and Colombia will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 17 June at 10:00 PM ET. This market settles on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. The 7% implied probability reflects the difficulty of predicting a specific scoreline in a single match; across World Cup history, any given exact score typically carries odds between 5–12% depending on team strength and expected goal differential.

Colombia enters as the stronger side by most metrics, ranked 16th globally as of late 2025, whilst Uzbekistan sits outside the top 50. Historical precedent suggests that when a significantly higher-ranked team faces a lower-ranked opponent in World Cup group play, the favourite wins roughly 60–70% of the time, but exact scorelines remain dispersed. Colombia's recent form and squad depth make 1–0 or 2–0 victories more probable than narrow Uzbekistan results, yet the market's current depth depends on deposit flows and withdrawal rails. Traders using SEPA transfers or Klarna instant payments typically show higher conviction in longer-odds outcomes, as lower friction on entry encourages deeper exploration of tail scenarios.

Watch for team news releases in the week before the match, particularly injury updates to Colombia's key attacking players and any late squad adjustments from Uzbekistan's coaching staff. Fixture congestion in the group stage and weather conditions in the host nation may also shift expected goal totals. Liquidity in this exact-score market will likely spike as the match date approaches and as major deposit gateways process funding; USDC on-ramp availability across European payment rails will influence whether specialist traders can build meaningful positions.

Methodology

We track Uzbekistan vs. Colombia - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.