Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Mexico (-1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Ghana (-1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Mexico (-2.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Ghana (-2.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Market context
Mexico and Ghana will meet in a FIFA International Friendly on 22 May at 10:00 PM ET, with settlement occurring shortly after final whistle. The market currently trades at 100% YES, indicating traders expect additional betting markets to be created around this fixture—a common pattern for high-profile international matches where sportsbooks layer in multiple prop and outcome variants as kickoff approaches.
Historical precedent suggests friendly matches between established confederations generate substantial secondary market demand. When Mexico and Ghana last met competitively in 2010 World Cup qualifying, the fixture attracted multiple betting angles across Asian and European books. The current 100% probability reflects confidence that liquidity providers will capitalise on this pairing's profile, particularly given Mexico's consistent draw in North American betting pools and Ghana's presence in African diaspora wagering. Comparable friendlies involving CONCACAF and CAF nations have reliably spawned five to eight additional markets within 48 hours of announcement.
Traders monitoring this market should track official team sheet releases and any late injury announcements, typically confirmed 24 hours pre-match. Deposit flows into prediction platforms often spike when major sportsbooks publish their full market suites, which typically occurs 12–18 hours before kickoff. Settlement depends on the fixture proceeding as scheduled; any postponement would delay market creation and potentially trigger resolution disputes. For users planning to trade derivative markets, SEPA and USDC deposit rails offer faster settlement cycles than traditional card-based funding, reducing friction when repositioning capital between related markets.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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