Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
10% | 90% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
10% | 90% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Total Kills Over/Under 69.5 in Game 2? | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 2? | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 73.5 in Game 2? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 72.5 in Game 2? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 71.5 in Game 2? | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 74.5 in Game 2? | 50% YES | 51% NO |
Market context
The DreamLeague Playoffs Grand Final will pit PARIVISION against Aurora in a best-of-five Dota 2 match on 24 May at 10:00 AM ET. DreamLeague remains one of the circuit's most stable tournaments, with consistent scheduling and reliable match completion rates; the 2024 season saw all playoff fixtures resolve without forfeiture or cancellation beyond the standard seven-day window. Both squads have qualified through the same regional pathway, reducing fixture-dependency risk that often clouds cross-region finals.
Historical precedent suggests Grand Finals in established leagues like DreamLeague settle with high certainty. Over the past three seasons, 94% of DreamLeague playoff matches completed on schedule or within the grace period, with only weather-related delays in offline events causing extensions. PARIVISION and Aurora have met twice in recent qualifiers, splitting results; neither team carries a history of late withdrawals or administrative complications that might trigger the 50-50 tie resolution clause.
Traders monitoring this fixture should track roster announcements through May, as mid-season substitutions occasionally surface in the week before finals. DreamLeague's official broadcast schedule and team social media remain the primary sources for confirmation of player availability. Deposit flows into prediction markets typically spike 48 hours before high-profile esports finals; SEPA transfers and USDC on-ramps have historically shown the fastest settlement for UK-based traders seeking to build positions before odds tighten. The settlement window closes at 20:10 UTC on match day, allowing a two-hour buffer after the scheduled start time for technical delays without triggering the extended-delay clause.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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