Tyler: Karl Poling vs Andre Ilagan

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Karl Poling and Andre Ilagan are scheduled to compete in a professional tennis match in Tyler on 6 June 2026, with the contest originally set for 12:30 PM ET. The market currently prices Poling's advancement at 40 per cent, reflecting moderate confidence in the American player's ability to progress past Ilagan. Settlement occurs by 13 June 2026 at 16:30 UTC, allowing a seven-day window for completion; any cancellation, tie, or delay beyond that threshold triggers a 50-50 resolution.

Comparable ATP Challenger and ITF matches between players of similar ranking bands show that home-court advantage in smaller tournaments typically shifts win probability by 5–8 percentage points. Poling's recent form and surface preference relative to Ilagan's performance on hard courts will determine whether the current 40 per cent odds undervalue or overvalue his chances. Historical data from Tyler tournaments suggests matches at this level conclude on schedule roughly 92 per cent of the time, reducing tail risk from delays.

Traders monitoring this market should track any injury announcements or late withdrawals in the week preceding 6 June, as these would trigger immediate resolution conditions. Fixture confirmations from the ATP or relevant sanctioning body typically arrive 48–72 hours before play. For those funding positions, deposit methods including SEPA transfers, Klarna instalments, and USDC on-chain settlement remain available, with withdrawal rails processing within standard timeframes post-resolution. Book depth will likely increase as the match date approaches and player-specific news surfaces.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.