Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Terence Atmane

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Kokkinakis, the Australian ranked outside the top 50, faces Atmane, a rising French clay prospect, in an early-round Roland Garros encounter scheduled for 24 May 2026. The 24% implied probability reflects Kokkinakis as the underdog despite his Grand Slam experience; Atmane's home-court advantage and recent form on clay courts have shifted market sentiment toward the younger player. Settlement occurs within seven days of the scheduled match date, with cancellation or unfinished play triggering a 50-50 split.

Kokkinakis has historically struggled with consistency on clay, winning just 38% of his Roland Garros main-draw matches across his career. Atmane, by contrast, has built momentum through French domestic clay tournaments in 2025–2026, reaching quarterfinals in Challenger events. The 24% probability aligns with historical patterns where unseeded Australian players face French clay specialists at Roland Garros; comparable matchups over the past five years have favoured the home-nation clay-court player at roughly 70–75% frequency.

Traders should monitor official ATP scheduling updates and injury bulletins through late May, as rain delays are common at Roland Garros and could push the match beyond the settlement window. Liquidity depth depends on deposit flows; SEPA transfers and Klarna payment rails typically see higher volumes during European clay-court season, which affects book depth for markets like this one. Any withdrawal delays on USDC or alternative rails could suppress late-market trading activity.

Methodology

This page reviews Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Terence Atmane across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.