Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 UEFA Champions League final between Paris Saint-Germain and Arsenal will be contested on 30 May at 12:00 PM ET. This market settles on the exact scoreline after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty outcomes. Any result not explicitly listed resolves to "Any Other Score," which typically captures 40–60% of liquidity in exact-score markets depending on the teams' offensive profiles and defensive stability.

Historical exact-score markets in Champions League finals show that outcomes cluster around 1–0, 1–1, and 2–1 results, which together account for roughly 35–45% of all resolutions. PSG's recent European campaigns have featured defensive solidity but variable attacking output; Arsenal's progression to a final would signal sustained improvement in both phases. The current 0% crowd probability reflects either minimal deposit flow into this specific outcome or early-stage market formation before significant funding arrives. Deposit friction—whether through SEPA transfers, Klarna instalments, or USDC on-ramps—directly affects book depth; markets with lower entry friction typically see earlier probability discovery.

Traders should monitor team news through May, including injury announcements and tactical adjustments in the weeks preceding the match. PSG's squad depth and Arsenal's injury record will shape expected goal differentials. Deposit-rail availability matters: markets with Klarna and USDC options historically see 20–30% faster liquidity accumulation than SEPA-only venues, allowing sharper probability calibration as match day approaches.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.