England vs. Costa Rica

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

England will face Costa Rica in a FIFA International Friendly on 10 June 2026, three weeks before the World Cup group stage concludes. The 11% implied probability of a Costa Rica victory reflects the substantial gap in FIFA rankings—England currently sits around 5th globally whilst Costa Rica ranks approximately 30th—and historical head-to-head record, where England has won four of five competitive and friendly encounters since 2014.

Comparable friendlies involving top-ten nations against teams ranked outside the top 25 typically settle with upset probabilities between 8–15%, depending on fixture timing and squad rotation patterns. England's recent friendly results show variable performance; a 3–0 defeat to France in March 2024 and a 1–1 draw with Brazil in November 2023 suggest vulnerability when facing organised defences. Costa Rica's qualification pathway and recent form will be critical—their CONCACAF performance and any injuries to key players like Keylor Navas or Bryan Ruiz could shift the underlying odds materially.

Traders monitoring this market should track squad announcements from both federations in late May, as pre-World Cup friendlies often feature rotated lineups that increase volatility. Fixture congestion and injury updates from the Premier League's final weeks will influence England's team selection. Deposit flows on prediction platforms typically accelerate 48–72 hours before international matches; SEPA transfers and Klarna on-ramps tend to show heavier volume for European fixtures, which may improve book depth and tighten spreads as settlement approaches.

Methodology

This page reviews England vs. Costa Rica across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Deposit UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.