Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil transits, has experienced significant traffic disruption since mid-2024 owing to regional tensions and Houthi attacks on merchant vessels. The market asks whether daily transit calls—measured as a seven-day moving average by IMF Portwatch—will recover to 60 or above by year-end 2026. This threshold represents a return to pre-disruption baseline levels. The resolution hinges entirely on IMF Portwatch's published data, which tracks container, tanker, bulk, and general cargo arrivals; unofficial counts or alternative databases do not qualify.

Historical precedent suggests recovery timelines vary sharply depending on the nature of disruption. The 2022 Russia-Ukraine war initially suppressed Black Sea traffic by 40–50%, yet recovery to baseline took roughly eighteen months once insurance and routing protocols stabilised. Conversely, the 2019–2020 US-Iran tensions saw Hormuz transits decline by 15–20%, with normalisation occurring within six to nine months once de-escalation signals emerged. The current 77% implied probability reflects market confidence in either a geopolitical settlement or sufficient alternative routing and insurance mechanisms to restore confidence by late 2026.

Traders should monitor ceasefire announcements, US and Iranian diplomatic signals, and Houthi operational tempo reports from maritime security firms such as Ambrey and Dryad Global. Insurance premium movements—tracked via Lloyd's of London and specialist brokers—serve as a leading indicator of perceived risk. Any formal agreement reducing regional hostilities, or sustained periods of reduced attack frequency, typically precedes traffic recovery by two to four weeks. Deposit friction remains material for book depth; traders using SEPA transfers or Klarna on-ramps should allow five to seven business days for settlement before positioning ahead of major geopolitical announcements.

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Deposit UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

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