How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 1 - June 7?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Between 1 and 7 June 2026, Earth will experience its usual seismic activity across active fault zones, subduction regions, and mid-ocean ridges. The question is whether that activity will include at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or above—a threshold that represents moderate to strong shaking capable of causing structural damage in populated areas. The USGS monitors roughly 130,000 seismic stations globally and publishes verified magnitude data with a lag of hours to days; this market settles against their official earthquake database once the window closes on 8 June.

Historically, a seven-day window anywhere on Earth produces a 5.5+ event in roughly 15 out of every 30 such periods, based on USGS catalogues from 2010 onwards. The current 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in an unusually quiet week or insufficient liquidity to attract traders willing to stake capital on the baseline expectation. Recent seismic activity in the Tonga region, parts of the Pacific Ring of Fire, and along the Mid-Indian Ridge has maintained elevated background rates; however, earthquake timing remains fundamentally unpredictable beyond statistical averages.

Traders monitoring this market should track USGS real-time earthquake feeds and regional seismic bulletins from 1 June onwards. Settlement depends entirely on USGS magnitude determinations, which occasionally shift slightly as additional station data arrives—though revisions rarely cross the 5.5 threshold. For UK-based traders, deposit methods via SEPA transfers or Klarna can fund positions within hours, whilst USDC on-chain settlement allows withdrawal to self-custody wallets without intermediary delays once the market resolves.

Methodology

We track How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 1 - June 7? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.