Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 10?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's daily high temperature on 10 June 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must commit capital before the full day's temperature range is known. This timing constraint—resolving before the afternoon peak—creates asymmetry in how traders price tail outcomes, particularly for ranges above 35°C.

June in Shanghai typically sees highs between 28–32°C, with occasional spikes above 33°C during early-summer heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market has attracted minimal liquidity so far, a pattern common for single-day weather markets that lack the deposit-and-hold convenience of longer-duration events. Comparable Shanghai June markets from prior years show that extreme ranges (above 36°C) rarely attract meaningful trading volume until late May, when seasonal forecasts sharpen and traders have committed funds through SEPA or Klarna on-ramps.

The China Meteorological Administration typically issues extended forecasts by late May, and any El Niño or Pacific warming signals could shift expectations for June heat. Traders should monitor official seasonal outlooks released in May, which often drive deposit flows into weather-focused books. Current low traction reflects both the market's distance from settlement and friction in funding accounts; once payment rails show active deposits, book depth and probability distributions tend to consolidate rapidly around meteorological consensus.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.