"The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The animated film "The Breadwinner" is scheduled for theatrical release on 29 May 2026, with its opening weekend box office performance (29–31 May) forming the settlement basis for this market. The current 0% probability reflects either minimal trading activity or genuine uncertainty about whether the film will achieve measurable domestic box office returns. Settlement relies on final figures from The Numbers' box office database rather than studio estimates, meaning traders must wait for audited weekend tallies before resolution occurs.

Historical precedent suggests animated releases targeting family and international audiences face unpredictable opening weekends depending on marketing spend, competitive releases, and school calendar timing. The original "The Breadwinner" (2017) earned approximately $11.2 million domestically across its entire theatrical run, a modest figure for an animated feature. However, that film had limited theatrical distribution; a 2026 wide release would operate under entirely different conditions. Comparable recent animated releases have ranged from sub-$10 million opening weekends for niche titles to $30–50 million for studio-backed franchises, establishing a wide performance band.

Traders should monitor announcement schedules from the distributor regarding marketing intensity, screen count commitments, and any delays to the May release date. School holidays in the United States (Memorial Day weekend) create favourable timing for family releases, though competition from other May releases will shape audience allocation. Payment friction remains relevant: traders depositing via Klarna or SEPA transfers should confirm settlement timelines align with the 1 June deadline, as delayed funding could prevent position adjustments if market-moving news emerges in late May.

Methodology

We track "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.