Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by 2026?

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Market context

The Senate still has to pass a reconciliation bill for immigration enforcement funding before the settlement window closes, and the clock is now tight. The House and Senate already adopted identical budget resolutions in late April, unlocking the reconciliation process for up to about $70–72 billion over ten years. CBO scored the Senate committee text at $72 billion in direct spending, with the bulk aimed at DHS, ICE and CBP. That means the remaining risk is no longer whether the policy vehicle exists, but whether leadership can clear the final text through the Senate in time.

For market read-through, the 0% implied price reflects the combination of procedural deadlines and practical bottlenecks. Reconciliation bills cannot be filibustered, but they still need a floor vote, amendment management and near-uniform Republican support. The committee deadline was 15 May, while recent reporting from Ballotpedia noted President Trump wanted approval before 1 June, leaving only a narrow window for floor scheduling, any House-Senate coordination and possible Byrd Rule disputes. In comparable reconciliation episodes, once identical budget resolutions are agreed, odds rise only if leadership puts a bill on the floor quickly; otherwise the calendar, not the whip count, becomes the binding constraint.

Traders should watch for any formal Senate floor schedule, “manager’s amendment” language, and whether both chambers continue to align on the same spending score and programme mix. Any delay from the Judiciary or Homeland Security committees, or a dispute over how much can be included under reconciliation rules, would push the bill beyond this market’s end date. The funding side matters too: book depth on markets like this often tracks the flow of deposits and withdrawals through the rails people actually use, especially if friction on cards, SEPA, Klarna or USDC leaves less fresh capital sitting on the book when the timetable gets compressed.

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Methodology

We track Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.