Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Raúl Castro would need to be physically detained, arrested or otherwise held by U.S. authorities before 30 June 2026 for this market to settle Yes. The latest reporting cited by WSOC and WFTV says U.S. prosecutors have now secured an indictment and arrest warrant over the 1996 shootdown case, but that is only a charging step, not custody. Castro is in Cuba and there is no public sign of a transfer, extradition process or travel plan that would put him in U.S. hands before expiry.

Historically, markets on custody or arrest usually price in both legal intent and practical reach. Indictments can arrive years before any arrest, especially where the target is outside U.S. jurisdiction or protected by a hostile government. That makes the 27% implied probability look more like a bet on an unexpected handover, capture, or third-party transfer than on the indictment itself. In comparable sovereign or exiled-figure cases, the key distinction has been between symbolic escalation and actual physical custody, which is the much harder threshold here.

Traders should watch for any White House, Justice Department or State Department statement on extradition, sanctions or a specific custody request, as well as any travel by Castro or reports of detention in a third country. The main catalyst would be a sudden change in Cuban-U.S. relations or an intermediate stop in a jurisdiction willing to act on the warrant. For funding flows, this is the kind of politically charged market that can draw in smaller-ticket deposits through card or instant bank rails, while deeper liquidity tends to come from faster settlement and withdrawal options such as SEPA or USDC.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.