Which NFL players will be traded?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

NFL player trades occur regularly during the offseason and occasionally mid-season when teams reassess roster fit or salary cap constraints. The market settles affirmatively if a named player moves to a different franchise by late July 2026, a window that captures most pre-season roster finalisation activity. At 2% implied probability, the crowd is pricing in either a low-profile player with minimal trade likelihood or a star with a no-trade clause and stable team commitment.

Historical precedent shows that roughly 40–60 trades occur annually across the NFL, though the vast majority involve backup-level or mid-tier contributors rather than marquee names. When elite players do move—as occurred with Russell Wilson (2022), Jalen Ramsey (2019), and Khalil Mack (2018)—trading activity clusters around the draft period and early offseason. The 2% reading suggests either strong contract protections, recent long-term extensions, or a player whose current team has no cap pressure to move him. Comparable low-probability outcomes typically involve franchise cornerstones or players with explicit no-trade agreements.

Traders should monitor team salary cap announcements, coaching changes, and draft strategy signals from the named player's current franchise. The NFL's 2026 offseason calendar runs January through March, with the draft in late April; significant roster moves typically crystallise by June. Recent reporting from ESPN and NFL.com on cap situations and front-office commentary will signal whether a team is exploring trades to create flexibility. Deposit rails including SEPA transfers and USDC settlement allow traders to enter positions efficiently without friction, though the extended settlement window to July means market depth may remain thin until spring 2026 when actual trade activity becomes visible.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.