Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

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Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world's most strategically contested waterways, with roughly one-fifth of global oil transit passing through its 54-kilometre width. Warship transits by non-regional powers—particularly Western navies—have occurred intermittently since the 1980s, though frequency and political sensitivity fluctuate sharply with regional tensions. The current 8% crowd probability reflects a baseline expectation that most major naval powers will avoid formal transits through the strait during the 18-month window, despite the historical precedent of freedom-of-navigation operations.

Historical comparisons provide calibration: the United States conducted regular carrier strike group transits through the strait in 2019–2021, whilst British and French naval vessels have passed through during periods of heightened Iran tensions. However, such operations are diplomatically costly and typically reserved for moments of acute crisis or explicit policy signalling. The absence of a major regional flashpoint in late 2024 and early 2025 has reduced immediate pressure for Western powers to stage contested transits, explaining why the market prices such events as unlikely.

Traders monitoring this market should track announcements from the US Fifth Fleet, statements from Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, and any escalation in attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden—factors that could trigger retaliatory freedom-of-navigation operations. Deposit friction remains material for active traders; SEPA transfers and Klarna on-ramps typically settle within 2–3 business days, whilst USDC deposits clear instantly, affecting capital deployment speed for those tracking real-time geopolitical developments.

Methodology

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Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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