Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively halted since late February 2026, with only seven vessels transiting by mid-June despite a brief reopening in April. Historical precedents from similar regional blockades show that even after ceasefire agreements, commercial traffic often remains at a trickle for months due to persistent routing uncertainty and fear of sporadic attacks. The current 9% crowd-implied probability reflects this reality: despite the US-Iran ceasefire of 8 April 2026, the Joint Maritime Information Centre confirms that merely six vessels navigated the strait in the last 24 hours, a stark drop from the typical 100-plus daily passages[3].

Traders must monitor the US naval blockade declaration and any potential toll negotiations, as Iran has suggested charging fees for passage, which could trigger sanctions risks for shipping companies[3]. Recent data from CNBC indicates that only 21 tankers have crossed since the conflict began on 28 February, compared to over 100 daily before the war, underscoring the severity of the bottleneck[4]. The market depth is driven by funding flows linked to payment rails like SEPA and USDC, where deposit friction influences book liquidity; as long as the strait remains closed, the probability of a June 30 rebound stays negligible. Watch for announcements from the US Treasury regarding sanctions on payments to Iran, as these could further deter non-hostile vessels from attempting transit[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Deposit UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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