Internet Access restored in Iran by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Iran's internet infrastructure went offline on 28 February 2026 during escalating military confrontation involving the United States and Israel. The blackout has persisted across most of the country, affecting banking systems, communications networks, and commercial activity. Restoration by 30 April 2026 would require either a ceasefire agreement that permits infrastructure repairs, or a unilateral decision by Iranian authorities to restore connectivity despite ongoing tensions. The settlement criteria demand credible international reporting of broad, unambiguous internet access—not partial or localised restoration.

Historical precedent suggests prolonged disconnections during active conflict. Syria's internet blackouts during civil war lasted months; Myanmar's military junta maintained selective restrictions for years despite international pressure. However, Iran's 2019 blackout lasted roughly one week before partial restoration, indicating the government can reverse course relatively quickly when political conditions shift. The current 0% crowd probability reflects the market's assessment that a two-month window is insufficient given the scale of military engagement and the infrastructure damage likely incurred.

Traders should monitor ceasefire negotiations, statements from Iranian telecommunications authorities, and damage assessments from international infrastructure monitors. Announcements from the UN, regional mediators, or direct US-Iran diplomatic channels would signal shifting conditions. Payment flows into this market have remained thin, reflecting the low probability and geopolitical uncertainty; deposit friction via SEPA transfers or USDC on-ramps may limit participation from European traders who typically drive depth in Middle East conflict markets.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.