Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Reserve's policy rate will be set at three consecutive FOMC meetings between March and June 2026. Each decision will establish a new upper bound for the federal funds rate target. A cut occurs if that upper bound falls below the prior level; a hike occurs if it rises. The current 0% probability on YES reflects trader conviction that no rate reduction will materialise across this window—a stance anchored in persistent inflation expectations and labour market resilience heading into 2026.

Historical precedent suggests such certainty warrants scrutiny. Between 2015 and 2018, the Fed maintained a tightening cycle despite repeated market calls for pauses, yet shifted to three cuts in 2019 when economic data deteriorated faster than anticipated. More recently, the 2023 banking stress prompted an unexpected pivot within weeks. The March 2026 meeting arrives after Q1 inflation and employment data; traders should monitor whether core PCE momentum or jobless claims surprise materially enough to shift Fed communication. The April and June meetings follow additional labour and price reports, creating multiple inflection points where consensus can fracture.

Deposit flows into prediction markets tracking Fed decisions typically accelerate ahead of FOMC announcements. Traders funding positions via SEPA transfers or Klarna instalment rails often front-load capital when volatility expectations rise. Watch for shifts in book depth as the March meeting approaches; thinning liquidity at extreme probabilities often signals either genuine conviction or positioning ahead of data releases. Recent Fed communications in January and February will frame how aggressively markets price tail scenarios for the first decision.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.