Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one-third of seaborne traded oil globally. A 7-day moving average of 60 daily transit calls would represent a return to pre-disruption baseline traffic; the metric has fluctuated between 40 and 75 calls per day over the past 18 months, with recent readings hovering near 45–50 following Houthi attacks on shipping and regional tensions that began in late 2023. The IMF Portwatch dataset tracks actual vessel arrivals reported by port authorities, making it a hard constraint for settlement rather than an estimate or forecast.

Historical precedent suggests that normalisation timelines depend on whether the underlying trigger is military de-escalation or commercial confidence recovery. The 2019 tanker attacks near the strait saw traffic dip for weeks but rebound within two months once insurance and routing protocols stabilised. The current episode has proven more persistent: even as direct attacks have declined in frequency since mid-2024, insurers and operators remain cautious about transit speeds and cargo composition, keeping call volumes suppressed. A 22% implied probability reflects trader scepticism that six months is sufficient for both geopolitical settlement and the slower-moving insurance and operational adjustments that follow.

Catalysts to monitor include formal ceasefire announcements between regional actors, statements from major shipping insurers on premium reductions, and any major port infrastructure damage reports from the UAE or Oman. The US Fifth Fleet's operational posture and any changes to military escort protocols will also signal confidence shifts. Traders depositing via SEPA or stablecoin rails should note that book depth on this market correlates with news cycles around Middle East tensions; liquidity typically tightens when headlines fade, even if underlying risk remains unresolved.

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Deposit UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.