Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Mojtaba Khamenei, the younger son of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has remained within Iranian territory throughout his life despite holding significant influence over military and security apparatus. The market tests whether he will physically depart Iran before 30 April 2026—a departure that would require confirmed exit from Iranian airspace or maritime territory, with landing in another country necessary if by aircraft. The 0% crowd probability reflects the absence of credible reporting suggesting imminent travel plans or circumstances that would compel departure.

Historical precedent offers limited direct comparison. Senior Iranian officials have occasionally travelled abroad for medical treatment, diplomatic engagement, or strategic repositioning, yet Mojtaba's role as presumed successor to his father and his operational control over the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force make extended absence politically sensitive. The 2009 post-election unrest and subsequent factional tensions within Iran's leadership structure did not precipitate departures by comparable figures, though exile cases involving lower-ranking officials and military defectors have occurred during periods of acute instability.

Traders monitoring this market should track Iranian domestic political developments, particularly any succession-related crises, international sanctions escalation affecting elite networks, or health emergencies requiring foreign medical intervention. Recent reporting from Reuters and Associated Press on Iranian leadership stability would provide early signals. Deposit friction remains material for this market's book depth—traders using SEPA transfers or Klarna payment rails should account for settlement timelines when positioning, as confirmation of departure may arrive suddenly and require rapid position closure before resolution.

Methodology

We track Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.