Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Islamic Republic of Iran's governing structures—the Supreme Leader's office, the Guardian Council, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps under clerical command—would need to be dissolved, incapacitated, or lose de facto control over the majority of Iran's population for this market to settle Yes by June 2026. The 1% crowd probability reflects the regime's institutional resilience and security apparatus, which has weathered sustained internal pressure, economic sanctions, and periodic unrest since 1979. No comparable regional regime transition has occurred within an 18-month window without preceding civil war or foreign military intervention; the closest historical analogue—the 1979 Iranian revolution itself—required years of escalating mobilisation and took place under conditions of state collapse that do not currently obtain.

Recent catalysts include the September 2022 protests following Mahsa Amini's death, which demonstrated sustained urban opposition but failed to translate into institutional fracture. Traders should monitor IRGC cohesion, factional splits within the clerical hierarchy, and any major economic shock that might trigger capital flight or currency collapse. The regime's control over media, judiciary, and security forces remains intact; any shift would likely require either a succession crisis following Supreme Leader Khamenei's death or a cascade of defections among military and security elites. Current liquidity on this market reflects its extreme tail-event status; deposit friction via SEPA transfers or USDC on-ramps may limit participation from retail traders in lower-conviction positions, concentrating the book among institutional players pricing regime stability as near-certain over the settlement window.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.