What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market is about whether Washington will accept Iran keeping uranium enrichment in place by 31 May, even if any deal comes with caps, monitoring, or other limits. That leaves the key question narrower than a full nuclear agreement: would the US move from demanding zero enrichment to tolerating some continued activity. With the market at 27% YES, traders are pricing in some chance of a negotiated compromise, but still treating a clean US acceptance of enrichment as the harder outcome.

Past talks suggest why the price is not lower, yet also why it is not high. Reporting around the spring ceasefire and follow-on negotiations has repeatedly shown both sides testing limited formulas: the US has pressed for an end to enrichment, while Iranian officials have insisted on retaining the right to enrich and on sanctions relief. Reuters and other outlets have described the gap as persistent, with enrichment remaining the central sticking point. That history matters because partial concessions have been discussed before, but formal US acceptance of continued enrichment has not been easy to achieve, especially under pressure from Israel and domestic opponents of any loosened line.

Near-term catalysts are the next public statements from Trump, Iranian officials, and any mediator carrying proposals between them. Watch for whether talks are framed as a ceasefire extension, a broader peace memorandum, or a nuclear-only channel, since wording can signal whether enrichment is still on the table. Funding flows may also matter for how quickly the market reprices: easier top-ups through SEPA, Klarna, or USDC usually widen participation and deepen the book, while slower deposits or withdrawal friction can leave the market thinner and more reactive to headline bursts.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.