Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran would need to publicly agree to stop all uranium enrichment before 31 July 2026 for this market to settle Yes, so the focus is on whether Tehran makes a clear pledge rather than whether any shutdown is actually implemented. That makes the current 56% implied probability sensitive to wording: a temporary freeze, a pause pending talks, or a side understanding may count if it is an explicit commitment to end enrichment, while continued ambiguity keeps the market on the No side.

The probability is best read against a long record of failed limits and partial reversals. Under the JCPOA, Iran accepted enrichment caps and stockpile constraints, but after the US withdrawal it gradually exceeded those limits and moved to much higher enrichment levels, with recent arms-control reporting describing 60% material and a sharply shortened breakout time.[3][5] In 2025, talks resumed via Oman, but the central sticking point remained Iran’s enrichment capability, and an IAEA report cited more than 400 kg of 60% uranium as of late May 2025.[1] That history makes a full public renunciation a materially bigger ask than a routine diplomatic pause.

For traders, the key catalysts are formal negotiating rounds, public remarks from the Iranian foreign ministry or supreme leadership, and any IAEA-linked diplomatic step that gives talks cover. The most price-moving print will be a Reuters-style report or official statement saying Iran will cease enrichment, even if tied to a broader package or delayed implementation, because the market’s rules count an agreement made before expiry.[2] Funding flows can matter here too: clearer news often pulls in fresh deposits through lower-friction rails such as SEPA, Klarna, or USDC, which tends to deepen the book and sharpen moves when headlines hit.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.