Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 8?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen's early June climate typically sits in the pre-monsoon transition period, with daytime highs ranging between 28–32°C at Bao'an International Airport, the official measurement station. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or pricing in extreme confidence that the settlement will fall outside all available ranges—an unusual signal for a straightforward meteorological outcome with well-documented seasonal patterns.

Historical June temperature data from Bao'an shows consistent behaviour: the airport station has recorded highs between 29–34°C throughout early June over the past decade, with 2023 and 2024 both registering peaks near 32°C. The absence of trading activity and zero implied probability typically reflects liquidity constraints rather than genuine market conviction. On platforms where deposit friction remains high—whether through Klarna settlement delays, SEPA transfer windows, or USDC on-ramp availability—niche markets like single-day temperature ranges often sit dormant until funding flows improve or traders consolidate positions across multiple markets.

Watch for any tropical system tracking towards the South China coast in late May or early June, which could suppress temperatures or trigger unusual rainfall patterns. The China Meteorological Administration typically issues seasonal forecasts by mid-May; their June outlook will be the primary catalyst for any shift in market activity. Until deposit rails stabilise or book depth improves, this market will likely remain illiquid, making the 0% reading more a reflection of trader absence than predictive insight.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 8? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Deposit UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.