Highest temperature in NYC on June 9?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

New York City's highest temperature on 9 June 2026 will be recorded at LaGuardia Airport and settled against Weather Underground's historical data archive. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full calendar day's peak reading in Fahrenheit. This is a straightforward meteorological outcome with no discretion in measurement—the station's thermometer either reaches a given threshold or it does not.

June temperatures at LaGuardia typically range between 75°F and 85°F, with historical highs occasionally pushing into the low 90s during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability reflects either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the full range. Comparable June days show high variability; the station recorded 91°F on 9 June 2015 and 78°F on 9 June 2019, illustrating the 13-degree spread traders must account for when positioning. Early-season heat waves do occur in the Northeast, though June typically sits below peak summer intensity.

The National Weather Service issues forecasts roughly ten days ahead, with meaningful precision arriving three to five days before settlement. Traders depositing via Klarna or SEPA rails should note that forecast updates—particularly any alerts for anomalous heat—will drive repricing in the final week. Book depth depends on deposit flows; markets with shallow liquidity often show extreme probabilities that correct sharply once traders can fund positions. Monitor NWS extended outlooks and any Atlantic weather systems that might stall over the region, as these are the primary catalysts that move temperature expectations materially.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 9? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.