Daegu Mayoral Election Winner

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

South Korea will hold a mayoral election in Daegu on 3 June 2026, selecting the city's chief executive for a four-year term. Daegu, the country's fourth-largest metropolitan area with roughly 2.4 million residents, has historically been a conservative stronghold, though recent elections have shown competitive margins. The election will determine control of one of South Korea's most economically significant cities, with implications for regional policy on transport, manufacturing, and urban development. Settlement depends on official results from the National Election Commission; any ambiguity will be resolved against that body's published outcome.

South Korea's mayoral elections typically see turnout between 50–60%, with results often reflecting broader national political sentiment. Daegu's 2022 mayoral race saw the conservative candidate win by a narrow margin after the incumbent faced corruption allegations. Comparable metropolitan elections in Seoul and Busan have demonstrated that incumbent party performance can shift substantially between election cycles, particularly when economic conditions or local scandals dominate the campaign narrative. The 0% crowd probability suggests either minimal trading activity or genuine uncertainty about candidate field formation.

Key catalysts include formal candidate registration (typically 90 days before polling), any major policy announcements from the incumbent administration, and national political developments that may influence local races. South Korean local elections often track closely with presidential approval ratings and parliamentary dynamics. Traders should monitor Korean news sources for candidate declarations and campaign finance disclosures, which become public once registration opens. The settlement window extends to 31 December 2026, providing a six-month buffer beyond election day for result confirmation and any legal challenges to be resolved through official channels.

Methodology

We track Daegu Mayoral Election Winner on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.