US-Iran deal text released by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement on 14 June 2026, with a signing ceremony scheduled for 19 June. This market tests whether any portion of the agreement text becomes publicly available by 1 July 2026. The 90% crowd probability reflects strong expectation that at least partial disclosure will occur within that fortnight, though the exact scope and timing of publication remains unconfirmed.

Historical precedent suggests high disclosure likelihood. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) text was published in full within days of its July 2015 announcement, with the US State Department releasing it alongside technical annexes. Similarly, the 2015 Iran nuclear deal framework text appeared in public archives within a week. Bilateral US agreements typically follow this pattern: formal announcement precedes public release by days rather than weeks. The 90% probability aligns with this track record, though political sensitivity around Iran negotiations introduces marginal uncertainty about whether full or partial redaction might occur.

Traders should monitor State Department press releases and UN documentation repositories immediately following the 19 June signing. Congressional notification requirements—which often trigger simultaneous public disclosure—represent a key catalyst. The settlement window's tight margin (just twelve days post-signing) means early publication signals will sharpen pricing sharply. Deposit flows into prediction markets typically spike on geopolitical resolution events; platforms accepting SEPA transfers and Klarna payment rails have historically seen higher participation velocity on Middle East policy markets, given European investor interest in sanctions and trade implications.

Methodology

We track US-Iran deal text released by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.