Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Nottingham Open grass-court tournament will host a first-round singles match between Czech players Marie Bouzkova and Tereza Valentova on 15 June 2026. Bouzkova, ranked in the top 100 on the WTA tour, faces Valentova, a lower-ranked domestic opponent. The 100% crowd-implied probability reflects strong confidence in Bouzkova's advancement, though settlement extends to 22 June to account for scheduling delays or incomplete play.

Historical precedent suggests grass-court upsets remain rare when ranking gaps exceed 50 positions. Bouzkova's prior performances at Nottingham and similar tier-one events show consistent progression through early rounds against unranked or lower-ranked challengers. Valentova's limited WTA main-draw experience provides minimal comparable data; her career record against top-100 opposition sits well below 20%. The market's certainty aligns with standard probability distributions for such matchups, where the higher-ranked player advances in roughly 85–92% of cases depending on surface and tournament tier.

Traders monitoring deposit flows and book depth should watch the WTA's official draw confirmation and any weather alerts affecting the grass courts in the week prior. Nottingham's schedule typically runs without significant delays, though June weather in the Midlands occasionally forces rescheduling. Real-time updates from the tournament's media channels will clarify court assignments and match timing. Settlement hinges on match completion; if play is suspended beyond seven days without a result, the market resolves 50-50 regardless of current probability, affecting withdrawal timing for positions held through the settlement window.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.