What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

West Texas Intermediate crude oil's price trajectory through May 2026 hinges on global supply discipline, demand signals from China and the OECD, and geopolitical risk premiums in the Middle East and Russia. The current 0% crowd probability reflects either extreme confidence in a specific price floor or sparse liquidity in this particular settlement window. WTI's May 2026 contract will settle against the monthly average closing price, making intramonth volatility less decisive than the aggregate trend across four weeks of trading.

Historical precedent suggests crude forecasts beyond twelve months carry wide confidence intervals. Between 2015 and 2020, WTI ranged from $26 to $66 per barrel; the 2022–2023 cycle saw $35–$130 swings tied to Russia's invasion and OPEC+ production cuts. A trader assessing May 2026 odds must weigh whether current geopolitical friction (Iran sanctions, Ukraine supply disruption, Saudi production policy) persists, moderates, or escalates. The International Energy Agency's June 2024 outlook projected modest demand growth and adequate non-OPEC supply, but forecasts beyond eighteen months typically revise sharply as new data emerges.

Deposit and withdrawal mechanics matter for book depth here: traders using SEPA transfers or Klarna on-ramps may face settlement delays if they need to liquidate positions before the May 31 close. USDC settlement rails offer faster exit routes but require stablecoin familiarity. Thin liquidity in longer-dated crude contracts often reflects funding friction rather than conviction; improving payment accessibility could shift the probability distribution materially once traders can move capital more freely.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.