Iraq vs. Norway - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Iraq and Norway meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 16 June at 6:00 PM ET. The market settles on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Any outcome not explicitly listed resolves to "Any Other Score," which typically captures the majority of match results and carries the inverse of the 4% probability assigned to this specific scoreline.

Exact-score markets in World Cup fixtures historically trade at low probabilities for any single outcome because football matches distribute across dozens of plausible results. A 1–1 draw or a 2–1 victory for either side typically commands 8–12% implied probability; outcomes at the extremes—0–0 or 4–0—trade below 2%. Iraq's FIFA ranking sits at 84th, Norway at 48th. Norway qualified for Euro 2024 but missed the 2022 World Cup; Iraq has not reached a World Cup since 1986. The current 4% reflects a mid-range scoreline with modest historical precedent between teams of this calibre.

Liquidity in exact-score markets depends on deposit flow and withdrawal rails. Sites offering SEPA transfers and Klarna on-ramps typically see deeper books in European fixtures; this match, involving a Nordic nation, may attract Nordic traders via local payment methods. Settlement occurs 22:00 UTC on 16 June, allowing same-day withdrawals for users with active funding accounts. Watch for team news in late May 2026—injuries to key players or late tactical shifts can shift implied probabilities across the scoreline cluster by 1–2 percentage points in the final week before kick-off.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.