Argentina vs. Algeria - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Argentina and Algeria will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 16 June at 9:00 PM ET. The market settles on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Any outcome not explicitly listed resolves to "Any Other Score." The 7% crowd probability assigned to this specific scoreline reflects both teams' recent form and the rarity of exact-score predictions in football, where even heavily favoured outcomes distribute across multiple possible results.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in World Cup group matches typically concentrate liquidity around the most probable outcomes—usually draws or narrow victories—whilst longer-odds scorelines remain thinly traded. Argentina's qualification as defending champions and Algeria's status as African Cup of Nations holders creates asymmetry in expected goal distribution, yet group-stage matches frequently produce surprises. The settlement window closes 17 June at 01:00 UTC, allowing traders roughly 16 hours post-match to settle positions. Funding flows into exact-score markets depend heavily on deposit friction; traders using SEPA transfers or Klarna payment rails often commit capital incrementally across multiple markets, meaning book depth for lower-probability outcomes like this one typically strengthens only after initial match analysis circulates.

Squad announcements and injury updates through early June will shape pre-match sentiment. Recent FIFA rankings and qualifying-round scoring patterns—particularly Argentina's goal-heavy performances and Algeria's defensive record—provide the baseline for adjusting implied probabilities. Monitoring official team news from both federations and major sports outlets will signal whether either side enters the match significantly weakened, potentially shifting the distribution of plausible scorelines.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Deposit UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.