Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Team Refuser and Game Master will contest the lower bracket quarterfinal 2 slot at the International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs on 17 June, with the winner advancing and the loser eliminated from contention for a spot at The International. This best-of-three match determines which team retains a path to qualify for Dota 2's premier annual event through the Chinese regional pipeline.

The 100% implied probability reflects the structural certainty of match execution rather than predictive confidence in either team's victory. Chinese regional qualifiers have maintained consistent scheduling adherence over the past two years, with cancellations or indefinite delays occurring in fewer than 2% of lower bracket fixtures. Historical precedent from prior International qualifiers shows that once teams reach the lower bracket quarterfinal stage, fixture completion rates exceed 98%, making the 50-50 tie-resolution clause a genuine edge case. Team composition stability and venue lock-in at this stage of the tournament pipeline typically eliminate the administrative friction that triggers market resolution disputes.

Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any travel disruptions affecting either squad in the 48 hours preceding the 12:00 AM ET kickoff. Recent changes to Chinese esports event scheduling have occasionally compressed match windows, though the qualifier format has maintained buffer capacity. Deposit flows into prediction markets covering Chinese Dota 2 events typically spike 24–36 hours before scheduled matches, with SEPA and USDC on-ramps seeing elevated activity from European and international traders. The settlement window closes at 10:00 AM ET on 17 June, allowing a 10-hour post-match window for result confirmation before withdrawal rails process.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.