Market statistics
- Total volume
- $471K
- 24h volume
- $460K
- Open interest
- $12K
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open live market → |
Available prediction outcomes (72)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
GamerLegion and Vici Gaming are scheduled to contest a best-of-three Dota 2 match within DreamLeague's Group A stage on 13 May at 13:00 ET. The fixture represents a regional clash between a European-based roster and one of China's established competitive organisations. DreamLeague remains one of the circuit's premier tournaments, drawing substantial viewership and sponsorship backing that typically ensures fixture completion. The 0% implied probability suggests either extreme illiquidity in the order book or market participants assessing a near-certain cancellation or postponement scenario.
Historical precedent from major Dota 2 tournaments indicates that group-stage matches rarely fail to resolve within the seven-day settlement window, even when initial scheduling conflicts arise. Vici Gaming's participation history shows consistent fixture completion across international events, whilst GamerLegion has maintained reliable attendance at DreamLeague iterations. The current probability floor likely reflects insufficient deposit flow or withdrawal friction on the prediction platform rather than genuine event-risk assessment. Traders seeking exposure would need to evaluate whether platform payment rails—SEPA transfers, USDC settlement, or Klarna on-ramps—carry sufficient depth to support position sizing at these odds.
Catalysts to monitor include official DreamLeague fixture confirmations and any roster changes announced prior to the scheduled date. Regional qualifiers and team announcements typically surface 48–72 hours before group play commences. Withdrawal liquidity and deposit processing times will determine whether traders can efficiently enter or exit positions; platforms with slower SEPA settlement or limited stablecoin on-ramps may see persistent probability distortions despite underlying event fundamentals remaining stable.
Methodology
This page compares Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. PolyGram additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.twitch.tv/esl_dota2earth. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like PolyGram add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by PolyGram — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). PolyGram retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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