Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

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Market context

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one-third of global seaborne oil trade and remains the world's most critical chokepoint for energy flows. Daily transit volumes fluctuate based on seasonal demand, refinery maintenance cycles, and geopolitical tensions affecting regional shipping patterns. IMF Portwatch tracks arrivals at major Gulf ports, providing the settlement mechanism for this market. The current 13% implied probability reflects expectations that daily transits will remain below the specified threshold throughout the settlement window, suggesting either a sustained contraction in regional shipping activity or a baseline assumption of continued operational normality.

Historical transit data shows daily arrivals at Hormuz-adjacent ports typically range between 15 and 40 vessels depending on the season and global crude demand. The 2022 sanctions escalation and subsequent shipping route diversions created temporary spikes in volatility, though volumes have stabilised since. Comparable markets tracking chokepoint transits have resolved based on geopolitical shocks rather than routine commercial fluctuations, indicating that the threshold here likely sits above normal operating levels.

Traders should monitor crude oil price movements, OPEC production announcements, and any escalation in regional military activity that could disrupt shipping lanes. Recent reports from maritime insurance providers and the International Maritime Organization typically precede measurable changes in transit patterns by one to two weeks. Deposit friction remains material for market participation—traders using SEPA transfers or Klarna on-ramps should account for settlement delays when timing entries around anticipated catalyst windows.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.