What price will Bitcoin hit on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price action on 25 May 2026 will reflect accumulated macroeconomic conditions, regulatory shifts, and on-chain liquidity flows across that specific calendar date. The settlement window extends to 26 May at 04:00 UTC, capturing intraday volatility and closing prices across major spot and futures venues. Current crowd pricing at 0% YES suggests either extreme confidence in a narrow price band or insufficient liquidity depth to attract meaningful capital into this particular outcome.

Historical precedent shows Bitcoin's single-day price targets rarely sustain zero probability unless they represent extreme outliers—more than 50% above or below prevailing spot rates. The 2021–2022 cycle saw daily swings of 10–15% during volatility clusters, whilst calmer periods compressed moves to 2–3%. A 0% reading typically indicates either a price threshold so wide it captures most plausible outcomes, or a market suffering from thin deposit rails and high withdrawal friction that discourages position-building. Traders evaluating this outcome should cross-reference historical volatility regimes and the actual strike price against current spot rates.

Catalysts through May 2026 include US Federal Reserve policy announcements, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows (which have stabilised deposit and redemption cycles since 2024), and any material shifts in institutional custody adoption. Regulatory clarity from the SEC or CFTC could trigger repricing weeks before settlement. On-ramp friction—particularly SEPA transfer delays, Klarna payment holds, and USDC liquidity constraints on secondary rails—will shape how quickly traders can capitalise on price dislocations if they emerge.

Methodology

We track What price will Bitcoin hit on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.