What price will Bitcoin hit on May 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's spot price on 24 May 2026 will either breach a specified threshold or it will not. The settlement window closes just after 04:00 UTC on 25 May, giving traders a defined moment to assess whether intraday or closing prices on that date have satisfied the market's condition. Current crowd pricing at 0% YES reflects either extreme confidence in a bearish outcome or insufficient liquidity to attract contrarian capital into the book.

Historical precedent suggests Bitcoin price targets set 18+ months forward rarely command high confidence. During 2021–2022, similar long-dated price markets saw sharp repricing as macro conditions shifted: the Federal Reserve's policy stance, spot ETF approvals, and mining difficulty adjustments each moved probabilities substantially. The 0% reading here is consistent with markets where the target sits far from present spot price or where deposit friction has limited participation from retail traders who might otherwise hedge via stablecoins or fiat on-ramps like Klarna or SEPA transfers.

Traders monitoring this market should track Federal Reserve communications, any major institutional Bitcoin acquisition announcements, and developments in UK or EU regulatory frameworks affecting crypto custody and exchange access. Funding flows matter: if on-ramp fees drop or USDC liquidity improves on UK-regulated platforms, fresh capital may enter the book and shift probabilities. Equally, any significant security breach or delisting event could accelerate the move toward zero. The settlement date falls outside major conference seasons, reducing event-driven volatility clustering around that specific week.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.