Bitcoin price on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's spot price at noon ET on 31 May 2026 will determine this market's outcome. The settlement hinges on Binance's 1-minute candle close for BTC/USDT, a mechanism that captures intraday volatility at a precise moment rather than daily open or close conventions. Given the 18-month settlement window, traders are pricing in substantial uncertainty around both macro conditions and Bitcoin's adoption trajectory during a period when on-ramp infrastructure—particularly stablecoin rails like USDC and fiat gateways via Klarna or SEPA transfers—will likely shape liquidity flows and thus spot price discovery.

Historical Bitcoin price predictions over similar timeframes show wide confidence intervals. In 2021, predictions for mid-2023 prices clustered around $20,000–$30,000 before the actual May 2023 close near $27,000; by contrast, 2024 predictions for 2025 proved more accurate as institutional adoption and ETF inflows stabilised volatility. The current 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme scepticism about the market's ability to forecast 18 months ahead or a technical artefact of how brackets are structured. Comparable long-dated crypto markets typically see non-zero probabilities across multiple price bands.

Catalysts through May 2026 include US monetary policy shifts, potential Bitcoin ETF expansion into derivatives markets, and regulatory clarity on stablecoin issuance—all of which affect deposit and withdrawal friction. Funding flows through payment rails directly influence order book depth at Binance; tighter on-ramp conditions (higher Klarna fees, SEPA delays) compress trading volume and widen spreads, whilst seamless USDC bridging typically correlates with tighter spot pricing.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on May 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.