Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic released Claude Fable 5 to the public on 9 June 2026, then suspended US customer access three days later following a directive from the US government. The market tests whether the company will restore access to this model—or a successor bearing the name Claude Mythos—before 2 July 2026. The 0% crowd probability reflects the compressed settlement window: fewer than three weeks remain for either a policy reversal or a formal government exemption to materialise.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance. US export controls on AI systems have tightened since 2024, but enforcement against domestic access suspensions remains inconsistent. The OpenAI GPT-4 throttling in 2023 and subsequent restoration occurred over months, not days. Anthropic's prior compliance record suggests the company prioritises regulatory alignment over rapid reinstatement. No comparable case has seen a government-mandated suspension lifted within a fortnight, though emergency carve-outs for research or national security applications have occasionally been granted on shorter timescales.

Traders should monitor announcements from the US Department of Commerce, which typically coordinates AI policy, and any public statements from Anthropic's leadership regarding negotiation status. Congressional activity or executive orders could shift the regulatory landscape, though legislative timelines rarely align with three-week windows. Funding flows into prediction markets on this outcome depend on deposit rails—USDC transfers and SEPA payments—remaining open; regulatory uncertainty may suppress book depth if counterparty risk perception rises. The settlement date's proximity to US fiscal quarter-end adds institutional calendar friction to position-building.

Methodology

This page reviews Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Deposit UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.